Changes in Tropical Cyclone Disasters Over China During 2001-2020

Tropical cyclones (TCs) constitute one of the major types of meteorological disasters in China, causing extensive damage. Based on the latest quality-controlled provincial-level TC disaster losses data over China from 2001 to 2020, the spatiotemporal variation in TC disaster and its link with TC activity in the form of prevailing track, precipitation, and intensity were investigated. Results showed that the areas impacted by TCs expanded significantly in the past decade (2011-2020) compared with the previous decade (2001-2010) throughout China, while the direct economic losses resulting from TCs did not increase significantly. Regionally, TC disaster losses increased in Northeast China but decreased in Fujian province. Causal analysis indicated that the increased influential TC (ITC) frequency and TC precipitation together led to the increase in damage for northern China. Also, more westward ITCs resulted in the increase in TC disasters for southwestern China. For southeastern China, the reduction in TC disasters was related to the northward shift in the northwestward ITC track. Although TC disasters increase with exposure, they are heavily influenced by TC track, precipitation, and intensity. Our findings suggest that more attention should be paid to TC prediction and early warning in northern China, especially Northeast China, where TC disasters are growing but there is greater vulnerability and insufficient capacity for TC prevention and mitigation.

Automated summary

Based on the analysis of provincial-level TC disaster losses data from 2001 to 2020 in China, it was found that the areas impacted by TCs expanded significantly in the past decade, especially in Northeast China and Fujian province. Causal analysis indicated that increased influential TC frequency and TC precipitation led to the increase in damage for northern China, while more westward influential TCs resulted in the increase in TC disasters for southwestern China. The reduction in TC disasters in southeastern China was related to the northward shift in the northwestward influential TC track. Therefore, more attention should be paid to TC prediction and early warning in northern China, especially Northeast China, where TC disasters are growing but there is greater vulnerability and insufficient capacity for TC prevention and mitigation.