Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest insect populations under climate change

Effects of climate on forest insect populations are complex, often involving drivers that are opposing, nonlinear, and nonadditive. Overall, climate change is driving an increase in outbreaks and range shifts. Links between climate and forest insect dynamics are becoming clearer; however, the underlying mechanisms remain less clear. Climate alters forest insect population dynamics directly through life history, physiology, and voltinism, and indirectly through effects on host trees and natural enemies. Climatic effects on bark beetles, wood-boring insects, and sap-suckers are often indirect, through effects on host-tree susceptibility, whereas climatic effects on defoliators are comparatively more direct. We recommend process-based approaches to global distribution mapping and population models to identify the underlying mechanisms and enable effective management of forest insects.

Automated summary

The effects of climate on forest insect populations are complex, multifacted, and involve opposing, nonlinear, and nonadditive drivers. Climate change overall is leading to an increase in outbreaks and range shifts of forest insects. The links between climate and forest insect dynamics are becoming clearer, but the underlying mechanisms are still not well understood. Climate directly affects forest insect populations through their life history, physiology, and voltinism, and indirectly through its effects on host trees and natural enemies. The effects of climate on bark beetles, wood-boring insects, and sap-suckers are often indirect, through their impacts on host tree susceptibility, while the effects on defoliators are more direct. Process-based approaches, global distribution mapping, and population models are recommended to identify the underlying mechanisms and enable effective forest insect management.