Dynamic Scenario Predictions of Peak Carbon Emissions in China's Construction Industry

As the largest carbon emitter in the world, China aims to reach its peak carbon emissions goal by the year 2030, while the construction industry makes a significant contribution to carbon emissions, directly affecting the country's commitment to meet its target. The present paper investigates the dynamic characteristics of carbon emissions released by China's construction industry under single- and multiple-scenario settings with altering economic growth rates, optimizing energy structures, adjusting industrial structures, and modifying carbon emission policy factors. The research results show that the total carbon emissions generally present a steady increase from the year 2000 and will reach 12,880.40 million tons (MT) by 2030 under a scenario without any intervention. Indirect carbon emissions released from associated industries account for over 96% of the total carbon emissions, while direct carbon emissions make a minor contribution to the total. Single and comprehensive scenarios have positive effects on reducing emissions; it was also observed that only under energy structure scenario III and comprehensive scenario III could carbon emissions released from the construction sector reach a peak value by 2030. The effects of emissions reductions as a result of single policies can be presented in the following order: energy structure, economic growth, carbon emissions policy factor, and industrial structure. All of the emissions reduction effects of multiple scenarios are superior to the single scenarios. The research results provide a basis and guidance for policymakers to adopt the correct steps to fulfill China's aim of achieving peak carbon emissions by the projected date.

Automated summary

As the largest carbon emitter in the world, China aims to reach its peak carbon emissions goal by 2030. The construction industry has a significant impact on carbon emissions, affecting China's commitment to meet its target. This study investigates the dynamic characteristics of carbon emissions from China's construction industry under different scenarios, including economic growth rates, energy structures, industrial structures, and carbon emission policies. The research findings show that total carbon emissions are steadily increasing and will reach 12,880.40 million tons by 2030 without any intervention. Indirect carbon emissions from associated industries account for over 96% of the total, while direct carbon emissions make a minor contribution. Single and comprehensive scenarios have positive effects on reducing emissions, with energy structure scenario III and comprehensive scenario III leading to a peak in carbon emissions from the construction sector by 2030. The effects of emissions reductions from different policies follow a specific order: energy structure, economic growth, carbon emissions policy factor, and industrial structure. The research results provide a basis and guidance for policymakers to achieve China's aim of peak carbon emissions by the projected date.