Projection of Future Meteorological Droughts in Lake Urmia Basin, Iran

Future changes (2015-2100) in precipitation and meteorological droughts in Lake Urmia Basin were investigated using an average mean ensemble of eight general circulation models (GCMs) with high-resolution datasets in socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In order to project the drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated. Overall, the results revealed that precipitation in Lake Urmia Basin will decrease by 3.21% and 7.18% in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results based on 6-month-timescale SPI indices projected more Extremely dry events in SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The frequency of Extremely dry months in SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 is expected to increase by 14, 7, 14, 10, 5, 14, and 7 months for the Mahabad, Maragheh, Saqez, Sarab, Tabriz, Takab, and Urmia stations, respectively. In contrast, the frequency of Extremely wet months will decline for all stations in Lake Urmia Basin. The results of this study provide useful insight for considering drought prevention measures to be implemented in advance for Lake Urmia Basin, which is currently experiencing various environmental issues.

Automated summary

Future changes in precipitation and meteorological droughts in Lake Urmia Basin were evaluated using eight GCMs with high-resolution datasets in different socioeconomic pathway scenarios. The results showed a decrease in precipitation by 3.21% and 7.18% under different scenarios. The projection based on SPI indices indicated an increase in extremely dry events in SSP5-8.5 scenarios, while the frequency of extremely wet months will decline for all stations in Lake Urmia Basin. The findings of this study provide useful insight for implementing drought prevention measures in advance for Lake Urmia Basin.