A Potential Earthquake with Magnitude Mw 7.2 on the Northern Xiaojiang Fault Revealed by GNSS Measurement

We used near-field and regional GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) data to quantify the deformation and locking ratio of the Xiaojiang fault (XJF) in southeastern Tibet. The inversion based on the dislocation model shows that the slip rate of the XJF is 9-11 mm/a; the locking depths of the northern, central, and southern segments are 25.5 km, 12 km, and 22.5 km, respectively. The inversion with DEFNODE program shows that the locking of the northern segment is the strongest above a depth of 20 km, while the locking between 20 km and 26 km is intermediate, and the weakest locking is found below 26 km. In the central segment, the depths of the interface are 6 km and 12 km. Additionally, a locked asperity that has the potential of generating an Mw 7.2 earthquake along the northern segment is delineated. The asperity and the shallow locking zone are basically consistent with the rupture area of the 1733 M 7.8 Dongchuan earthquake and the 1833 M 8 Songming earthquake, respectively. Both the activity of the historical strong earthquakes and the seismicity of the microearthquakes recorded over recent years seem to suggest that a potential earthquake is imminent.

Automated summary

We used near-field and regional GNSS data to analyze the deformation and locking ratio of the Xiaojiang fault in southeastern Tibet. The results showed that the slip rate of the fault is 9-11 mm/a, with varying locking depths in different segments. An asperity with the potential of generating a strong earthquake was identified, which is consistent with historical earthquake events. The activity of both strong historical earthquakes and recent microearthquakes suggests the possibility of an imminent earthquake.