Journal
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON NEURAL NETWORKS AND LEARNING SYSTEMS
Volume 34, Issue 4, Pages 1732-1741Publisher
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TNNLS.2020.3027822
Keywords
Forecasting; Predictive models; Probabilistic logic; Learning systems; Adaptation models; Support vector machines; Correlation; Machine learning; probabilistic learning system; regularized extreme learning; sequence modeling and learning; traffic flow forecasting
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This study proposes a novel probabilistic learning system, probabilistic regularized extreme learning machine combined with ANFIS (probabilistic R-ELANFIS), to improve the accuracy of traffic flow forecasting. The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves competitive performance in terms of forecasting ability and generalizability compared to other methods.
The adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is a structured multioutput learning machine that has been successfully adopted in learning problems without noise or outliers. However, it does not work well for learning problems with noise or outliers. High-accuracy real-time forecasting of traffic flow is extremely difficult due to the effect of noise or outliers from complex traffic conditions. In this study, a novel probabilistic learning system, probabilistic regularized extreme learning machine combined with ANFIS (probabilistic R-ELANFIS), is proposed to capture the correlations among traffic flow data and, thereby, improve the accuracy of traffic flow forecasting. The new learning system adopts a fantastic objective function that minimizes both the mean and the variance of the model bias. The results from an experiment based on real-world traffic flow data showed that, compared with some kernel-based approaches, neural network approaches, and conventional ANFIS learning systems, the proposed probabilistic R-ELANFIS achieves competitive performance in terms of forecasting ability and generalizability.
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