Uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility

The potential for the mitigation of global non-CO2 greenhouse gases is highly uncertain. Harmsen et al. estimate this uncertainty and show that it has large implications for the feasibility of reaching the Paris Climate Agreement targets. Despite its projected crucial role in stringent, future global climate policy, non-CO2 greenhouse gas (NCGG) mitigation remains a large uncertain factor in climate research. A revision of the estimated mitigation potential has implications for the feasibility of global climate policy to reach the Paris Agreement climate goals. Here, we provide a systematic bottom-up estimate of the total uncertainty in NCGG mitigation, by developing 'optimistic', 'default' and 'pessimistic' long-term NCGG marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, based on a comprehensive literature review of mitigation options. The global 1.5-degree climate target is found to be out of reach under pessimistic MAC assumptions, as is the 2-degree target under high emission assumptions. In a 2-degree scenario, MAC uncertainty translates into a large projected range in relative NCGG reduction (40-58%), carbon budget (+/- 120 Gt CO2) and policy costs (+/- 16%). Partly, the MAC uncertainty signifies a gap that could be bridged by human efforts, but largely it indicates uncertainty in technical limitations.

Automated summary

The potential for reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases is highly uncertain, and this uncertainty has significant implications for achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. A systematic estimate of the uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation reveals that reaching the global climate targets is challenging due to technical limitations and uncertainties in mitigation options.