Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru?

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants by Culicoides spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated whether climate change would influence the potential distribution and ecological niche of BTV and Culicoides insignis in Peru. Here, we analyzed BTV (n = 145) and C. insignis (n = 22) occurrence records under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) with five primary general circulation models (GCMs) using the kuenm R package v.1.1.9. Then, we obtained binary presence-absence maps and represented the risk of transmission of BTV and niche overlapping. The niche model approach showed that north and east Peru presented suitability in the current climate scenario and they would have a decreased risk of BTV, whilst its vector would be stable and expand with high agreement for the five GCMs. In addition, its niche overlap showed that the two niches almost overlap at present and would completely overlap with one another in future climate scenarios. These findings might be used to determine the areas of highest priority for entomological and virological investigations and surveillance in order to control and prevent bluetongue infections in Peru.

Automated summary

This study evaluated the potential distribution and ecological niche of bluetongue virus (BTV) and Culicoides insignis in Peru under different climate scenarios. The findings showed that the risk of BTV would decrease, while the distribution and stability of its vector would increase due to climate change. The current and future climate scenarios revealed high overlap of the ecological niches of BTV and its vector.