Quantifying Spillover Risk with an Integrated Bat-Rabies Dynamic Modeling Framework

Vampire bat-transmitted rabies has recently become the leading cause of rabies mortality in both humans and livestock in Latin America. Evaluating risk of transmission from bats to other animal species has thus become a priority in the region. An integrated bat-rabies dynamic modeling framework quantifying spillover risk to cattle farms was developed. The model is spatially explicit and is calibrated to the state of Sao Paulo, using real roost and farm locations. Roost and farm characteristics, as well as environmental data through an ecological niche model, are used to modulate rabies transmission. Interventions aimed at reducing risk in roosts (such as bat culling or vaccination) and in farms (cattle vaccination) were considered as control strategies. Both interventions significantly reduce the number of outbreaks in farms and disease spread (based on distance from source), with control in roosts being a significantly better intervention. High-risk areas were also identified, which can support ongoing programs, leading to more effective control interventions.

Automated summary

Vampire bat-transmitted rabies is causing the most deaths from rabies in Latin America, affecting both humans and livestock. To assess the risk of bat-to-animal transmission, a spatially explicit bat-rabies dynamic modeling framework was developed and calibrated using real roost and farm data in Sao Paulo. The model incorporates roost and farm characteristics and environmental data to evaluate rabies transmission. Interventions to reduce risk in roosts (such as bat culling or vaccination) and in farms (cattle vaccination) were evaluated, with control in roosts being more effective. The identification of high-risk areas can aid in implementing control interventions.