Downscaling long lead time daily rainfall ensemble forecasts through deep learning

Skilful and localised daily weather forecasts for upcoming seasons are desired by climate-sensitive sectors. Various General circulation models routinely provide such long lead time ensemble forecasts, also known as seasonal climate forecasts (SCF), but require downscaling techniques to enhance their skills from historical observations. Traditional downscaling techniques, like quantile mapping (QM), learn empirical relationships from pre-engineered predictors. Deep-learning-based downscaling techniques automatically generate and select predictors but almost all of them focus on simplified situations where low-resolution images match well with high-resolution ones, which is not the case in ensemble forecasts. To downscale ensemble rainfall forecasts, we take a two-step procedure. We first choose a suitable deep learning model, very deep super-resolution (VDSR), from several outstanding candidates, based on an ensemble forecast skill metric, continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Secondly, via incorporating other climate variables as extra input, we develop and finalise a very deep statistical downscaling (VDSD) model based on CRPS. Both VDSR and VDSD are tested on downscaling 60 km rainfall forecasts from the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Seasonal model version 1 (ACCESS-S1) to 12 km with lead times up to 217 days. Leave-one-year-out testing results illustrate that VDSD has normally higher forecast accuracy and skill, measured by mean absolute error and CRPS respectively, than VDSR and QM. VDSD substantially improves ACCESS-S1 raw forecasts but does not always outperform climatology, a benchmark for SCFs. Many more research efforts are required on downscaling and climate modelling for skilful SCFs.

Automated summary

Skilful and localised daily weather forecasts are needed by climate-sensitive sectors, which can be provided by downscaling techniques applied to the ensemble forecasts from General circulation models. This study focuses on deep-learning-based downscaling method for ensemble rainfall forecasts and proposes a two-step procedure to enhance the accuracy and skill. The results demonstrate that the developed very deep statistical downscaling model outperforms other models and improves the raw forecasts, although further research efforts are required for skilful seasonal climate forecasts.