Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 120, Issue 13, Pages -Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120
Keywords
climate change; atmospheric dynamics; European heatwaves; European windstorms
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Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. However, a study on the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic from 1950 to 2021 revealed significant trends. These trends have major impacts on surface climate, driving heatwaves across Europe and increased wintertime storminess in the northern part of the continent. The identified trends are statistically significant but not necessarily anthropogenic.
Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. Here, we study 1950 to 2021 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. Roughly 7% of atmospheric circulation patterns display significant occurrence trends, yet they have major impacts on surface climate. Increasingly frequent patterns drive heatwaves across Europe and enhanced wintertime storminess in the northern part of the continent. Over 91% of recent heatwave-related deaths and 33% of high-impact windstorms in Europe were concurrent with increasingly frequent atmospheric circulation patterns. While the trends identified are statistically significant, they are not necessarily anthropogenic. Atmospheric patterns which are becoming rarer correspond instead to wet, cool summer conditions over northern Europe and wet winter conditions over continental Europe. The combined effect of these circulation changes is that of a strong, dynamically driven year-round warming over most of the continent and large regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and surface wind.
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