4.8 Article

Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature

Related references

Note: Only part of the references are listed.
Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Understanding Model-Observation Discrepancies in Satellite Retrievals of Atmospheric Temperature Using GISS ModelE

Madeline C. Casas et al.

Summary: In this study, we analyze the representation of satellite-retrieved atmospheric temperature diagnostics in historical simulations of climate change during the satellite era. We consider multiple factors such as greenhouse gases, ocean coupling, volcanic aerosols, solar activity, and compositional and dynamic feedbacks. We find that while overall temperature trends are well captured, discrepancies exist at all levels and have multiple causes, with ozone depletion and feedbacks being the most influential factor for stratospheric comparisons and ocean heat uptake and tropospheric aerosols playing a role in tropospheric skill.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2023)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Mid-Tropospheric Layer Temperature Record Derived From Satellite Microwave Sounder Observations With Backward Merging Approach

Cheng-Zhi Zou et al.

Summary: This article introduces a new version (v5.0) of the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) mid-tropospheric temperature (TMT) time series, which uses a backward-merging approach to intercalibrate 16 satellite-based microwave sounding records and provides reliable TMT records for climate change research.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2023)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Spurious Late Historical-Era Warming in CESM2 Driven by Prescribed Biomass Burning Emissions

J. T. Fasullo et al.

Summary: Using the CMIP6 forcing database, it was found that a spurious increase in prescribed biomass burning emissions resulted in warming in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Through targeted sensitivity experiments, it was shown that this warming was specifically caused by biomass burning variability from 40 degrees to 70 degrees N, which led to cloud thinning and an increase in absorbed solar radiation. This study highlights the potential pitfalls of incorporating discontinuities in climate forcing data sets.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2022)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Internal variability and forcing influence model-satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming

Stephen Po-Chedley et al.

Summary: By applying machine learning to climate model simulations and observations, this study finds that external forcing contributes to tropical tropospheric warming, but internal variability offsets this warming. The study also highlights the impact of discontinuity in biomass-burning aerosol emissions on simulated warming trends, potentially leading to bias in climate models.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2022)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Robust Anthropogenic Signal Identified in the Seasonal Cycle of Tropospheric Temperature

Benjamin D. Santer et al.

Summary: The study used five climate models to conduct large ensembles and found that despite differences in models, the seasonal cycle changes in T-AC(x, t) in satellite data and models are similar and identifiable. The global-scale fingerprint patterns, distinct from smaller-scale internal variability patterns, are robustly detectable in both observations and models, indicating common forced T-AC(x, t) changes driven by basic physical processes.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2022)

Article Environmental Sciences

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Mika Rantanen et al.

Summary: Analyses of observations and climate simulations suggest that Arctic Amplification has been stronger than expected and underestimated in climate models. The warming in the Arctic has been nearly four times faster than the global average over the past 43 years, which is a higher ratio than previously reported. This finding indicates the urgency and severity of Arctic warming.

COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2022)

Article Environmental Sciences

CMIP5/6 models project little change in the statistical characteristics of sudden stratospheric warmings in the 21st century

Jian Rao et al.

Summary: The study using state-of-the-art models found that there may be a slight increase in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warming events under moderate and strong emission scenarios, but other characteristics will not change significantly. The increase in frequency is most pronounced in mid-late winter in CMIP6, while no clear shift in seasonality is expected.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Stratospheric Temperature and Ozone Anomalies Associated With the 2020 Australian New Year Fires

L. A. Rieger et al.

Summary: After the 2020 Australian bushfires, satellite observations documented stratospheric aerosol, temperature, and ozone anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. The anomalies were comparable to the effects of the Calbuco eruption in 2015, with enhanced aerosols and warm temperature anomalies leading to midlatitude ozone depletion. The overall effects resembled those of the 2015 eruption, with record low ozone levels and polar temperatures.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Natural variability contributes to model-satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming

Stephen Po-Chedley et al.

Summary: There is a discrepancy between GCMs and satellite observations regarding the warming trend of the midtroposphere temperature in the tropics. Some model simulations show trends that align with observations while others exhibit subdued warming, particularly in the tropical Pacific. The latest generation of GCMs also demonstrate muted tropical tropospheric warming trends over the central and eastern Pacific.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Using Climate Model Simulations to Constrain Observations

Benjamin D. Santer et al.

Summary: The study compares atmospheric temperature changes in CMIP5 and CMIP6 model ensembles with satellite data, revealing discrepancies in tropical behavior and anomalous covariance behavior in observational datasets. The findings suggest a systematic bias in satellite tropospheric temperature trends or an overestimate of observed atmospheric moistening signals. Further research is needed to determine the credibility of these interpretations.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2021)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations

John C. Fyfe et al.

Summary: This study analyzes a large ensemble of simulations using a comprehensive Earth System Model to quantify uncertainties in global climate change attributable to differences in prescribed forcings. Significant differences in simulated global surface air temperature and Arctic sea ice area are found due to volcanic and anthropogenic aerosol forcings.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability

Dann M. Mitchell et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

Article Environmental Sciences

Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity

Celine J. W. Bonfils et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Observed Temperature Changes in the Troposphere and Stratosphere from 1979 to 2018

A. K. Steiner et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Multi-Frequency Analysis of Simulated versus Observed Variability in Tropospheric Temperature

Giuliana Pallotta et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2020)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends

Amanda C. Maycock et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2018)

Article Environmental Sciences

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

Keywan Riahi et al.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Mirrored changes in Antarctic ozone and stratospheric temperature in the late 20th versus early 21st centuries

Susan Solomon et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

UAH Version 6 Global Satellite Temperature Products: Methodology and Results

Roy W. Spencer et al.

ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (2017)

Article Engineering, Ocean

Stratospheric Temperature Climate Data Record from Merged SSU and AMSU-A Observations

Cheng-Zhi Zou et al.

JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC TECHNOLOGY (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Stratospheric Temperature Trends over 1979-2015 Derived from Combined SSU, MLS, and SABER Satellite Observations

William J. Randel et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Sensitivity of Satellite-Derived Tropospheric Temperature Trends to the Diurnal Cycle Adjustment

Carl A. Mears et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2016)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer

Susan Solomon et al.

SCIENCE (2016)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization

Veronika Eyring et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2016)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6

Nathan P. Gillett et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2016)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Why CO2 cools the middle atmosphere - a consolidating model perspective

Helge F. Goessling et al.

EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS (2016)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): experimental protocol for CMIP6

Robert Pincus et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2016)

Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A review of Stratospheric Sounding Unit radiance observations for climate trends and reanalyses

John Nash et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2015)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Observational evidence of strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation since 1980

Q. Fu et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2015)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature

Benjamin D. Santer et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2014)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing

John Marshall et al.

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Recalibration and merging of SSU observations for stratospheric temperature trend studies

Cheng-Zhi Zou et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2014)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature

Benjamin D. Santer et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2013)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere

Benjamin D. Santer et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Models versus radiosondes in the free atmosphere: A new detection and attribution analysis of temperature

F. C. Lott et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2013)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

The mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends

David W. J. Thompson et al.

NATURE (2012)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Assessing uncertainty in estimates of atmospheric temperature changes from MSU and AMSU using a Monte-Carlo estimation technique

Carl A. Mears et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2011)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale

B. D. Santer et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2011)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

THE POTENTIAL TO NARROW UNCERTAINTY IN REGIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTIONS

Ed Hawkins et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2009)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Recalibration of microwave sounding unit for climate studies using simultaneous nadir overpasses

Cheng-Zhi Zou et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2006)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Anthropogenic and natural influences in the evolution of lower stratospheric cooling

V Ramaswamy et al.

SCIENCE (2006)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Stratospheric influences on MSU-derived tropospheric temperature trends: A direct error analysis

Q Fu et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2004)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Effects of ozone and well-mixed gases on annual-mean stratospheric temperature trends

V Ramaswamy et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2002)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Assessing the robustness of zonal mean climate change detection

PW Thorne et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2002)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Limitations of the equivalent CO2 approximation in climate change simulations

B Govindasamy et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2001)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

An estimate of the impact of observed ozone losses on stratospheric temperature

U Langematz

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2000)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The effect of two decades of ozone change on stratospheric temperature as indicated by a general circulation model

SM Rosier et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2000)