Research on Energy Saving and Rebound Effects of Technological Progress from the Perspective of Regime Switch

Technological progress has been considered as the essential backbone of reducing energy consumption and achieving low-carbon transmission. It is universally accepted that the technological level and energy structure change with time, indicating a significant characteristic of regime switching. From the perspective of regime switching, this paper considers the saving and rebound effect of technological progress and uses MSIH-VAR model to empirically analyze energy consumption changes in Zhejiang Province from 1990 to 2019. The results show that technological progress restricts the growth of energy consumption. Specifically, in the whole period, the variables show significant characteristics of double regimes, whose attributes are different. Moreover, the boundary between regimes is clear, and the state is stable. Technological progress in regime 1 positively promotes the increase of energy consumption, while in regime 2 decreases energy consumption. The saving effect is stage or lag under different regimes.

Automated summary

This paper considers the saving and rebound effect of technological progress from the perspective of regime switching, and empirically analyzes energy consumption changes in Zhejiang Province from 1990 to 2019 using the MSIH-VAR model. The results show that technological progress restricts the growth of energy consumption and exhibits different attributes in two regimes. Technological progress in regime 1 positively promotes the increase of energy consumption, while in regime 2 decreases energy consumption. The saving effect has stage or lag under different regimes.