The prediction of market-level food choices by the neural valuation signal

Neuroimaging studies have demonstrated the ability to use the brain activity of a group of individuals to forecast the behavior of an independent group. In the current study, we attempted to forecast aggregate choices in a popular restaurant chain. During our functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, 22 participants were exposed to 78 photos of dishes from a new menu of a popular restaurant chain. In addition to self-reported preferences, fMRI data was extracted from an a priori domain-general and task-specific region of interest-the ventral striatum. We investigated the relationship between the neural activity and real one-year sales provided by the restaurant chain. Activity in the ventral striatum, which was defined using the task-specific region of interest, significantly correlated (r = 0.28, p = 0.01) with one-year sales. A regression analysis, which included ventral striatum activity together with the objective characteristics of the products (price and weight), behavioral, and survey data, showed R-2 values of 0.33. Overall, our results confirm prior studies, which have suggested, that brain activity in the reward system of a relatively small number of individuals can forecast the aggregate choice of a larger independent group of people.

Automated summary

Neuroimaging studies have shown that using the brain activity of a group of individuals can predict the behavior of an independent group. In this study, the researchers aimed to forecast the aggregate choices in a popular restaurant chain using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The study found that activity in the ventral striatum, as defined by a task-specific region of interest, significantly correlated with the one-year sales of the restaurant chain (r = 0.28, p = 0.01). Regression analysis combining ventral striatum activity with objective product characteristics, behavioral, and survey data yielded an R-2 value of 0.33. These results confirm previous studies suggesting that the brain activity of a relatively small number of individuals can predict the choices of a larger independent group.