The Covid-19 pandemic and the expansion of the mortality gap between the United States and its European peers

The mortality gap between the United States and other high-income nations substantially expanded during the first two decades of the 21(st) century. International comparisons of Covid-19 mortality suggest this gap might have grown during the Covid-19 pandemic. Applying population-weighted average mortality rates of the five largest West European countries to the US population reveals that this mortality gap increased the number of US deaths by 34.8% in 2021, causing 892,491 excess deaths that year. Controlling for population size, the annual number of excess deaths has nearly doubled between 2019 and 2021 (+84.9%). Diverging trends in Covid-19 mortality contributed to this increase in excess deaths, especially towards the end of 2021 as US vaccination rates plateaued at lower levels than in European countries. In 2021, the number of excess deaths involving Covid-19 in the United States reached 223,266 deaths, representing 25.0% of all excess deaths that year. However, 45.5% of the population-standardized increase in excess deaths between 2019 and 2021 is due to other causes of deaths. While the contribution of Covid-19 to excess mortality might be transient, divergent trends in mortality from other causes persistently separates the United States from West European countries. Excess mortality is particularly high between ages 15 and 64. In 2021, nearly half of all US deaths in this age range are excess deaths (48.0%).

Automated summary

The mortality gap between the US and other high-income nations widened in the first two decades of the 21(st) century and may have further increased during the Covid-19 pandemic. The application of weighted average mortality rates from five West European countries to the US population shows a 34.8% increase in deaths and 892,491 excess deaths in 2021. Covid-19 mortality diverged from European countries due to lower vaccination rates in the US, with Covid-19-related excess deaths accounting for 25.0% of all excess deaths in 2021.