4.7 Article

Data assimilation method for improving the global spatiotemporal predictions of epidemic dynamics yielded by an ensemble Kalman filter and Metropolis-Hastings sampling

Related references

Note: Only part of the references are listed.
Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Return to normal pre-COVID-19 life is delayed by inequitable vaccine allocation and SARS-CoV-2 variants

Feng Liu et al.

Summary: The COVID-19 pandemic has raised concerns about whether and when the world can achieve herd immunity and return to normal life. Through experiments and modeling, it was found that most high-income countries can reach herd immunity in less than a year, while low-income countries may take more than three years. With a more equitable vaccine allocation strategy, global herd immunity can be reached in 2021. However, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants may prolong the time needed to achieve herd immunity and increase the number of cumulative cases. By providing rapid vaccine assistance to low-income countries/regions, the prevention of COVID-19 infection can be improved.

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION (2022)

Article Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications

Deeper investigation of modified epidemiological computer virus model containing the Caputo operator

Wei Gao et al.

Summary: The main aim of this paper is to analyze a modified epidemiological model called Susceptible-Infected-Removed model with an additional antidotal population compartment called A (SIRA). The authors used fractional natural decomposition method (FNDM) and variational iteration method (VIM) to solve the governing model and explore wave behaviors of infection viruses in computer science. Furthermore, the paper also discussed numerical investigations and strain conditions for optimal parameter values to minimize the impact of computer viruses. The uniqueness of the Caputo operator was proven using Lipschitz condition theorem and Banach space, and various wave distributions of virus nature were illustrated in plots.

CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS (2022)

Article Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications

ON THE COMPLEX MIXED DARK-BRIGHT WAVE DISTRIBUTIONS TO SOME CONFORMABLE NONLINEAR INTEGRABLE MODELS

Armando Ciancio et al.

Summary: In this research, the sine-Gordon expansion method is applied to analyze the (2+1)-dimensional Nizhnik-Novikov-Veselov equation and the Caudrey-Dodd-Gibbon-Sawada-Kotera equation. By transforming these nonlinear partial differential models into ordinary differential equations using conformable derivative, wave solutions involving trigonometric function and hyperbolic function are found, and various simulations are plotted under the strain conditions of these solutions.

FRACTALS-COMPLEX GEOMETRY PATTERNS AND SCALING IN NATURE AND SOCIETY (2022)

Article Physics, Multidisciplinary

The epidemic COVID-19 model via Caputo-Fabrizio fractional operator

Ajay Kumar et al.

Summary: In this article, the mathematical model of the COVID-19 epidemic from the reservoir to humans is analyzed and identified using a powerful fractional homotopy perturbation transform method. The simulations under high parameters show the efficacy of the theoretical framework considered for the governing structure. The obtained results provide insights into the dynamic behavior of the COVID-19 model. Numerical approximations and graphical demonstrations are used to explain the efficiency of the proposed method for various values of fractional order.

WAVES IN RANDOM AND COMPLEX MEDIA (2022)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories

Yong Ge et al.

Summary: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and COVID-19 vaccination have been implemented concurrently, making their relative effects difficult to measure. Here, the authors show that effects of NPIs reduced as vaccine coverage increased, but that NPIs could still be important in the context of more transmissible variants.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2022)

Article Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence

The coefficient of determination R-squared is more informative than SMAPE, MAE, MAPE, MSE and RMSE in regression analysis evaluation

Davide Chicco et al.

Summary: Regression analysis is a key component of supervised machine learning, predicting continuous targets from other variables. While binary classification has targets with two values, regression can have multiple values. However, there is no consensus on a standard metric for evaluating regression results, with commonly used measures like MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE having interpretability limitations.

PEERJ COMPUTER SCIENCE (2021)

Article Computer Science, Information Systems

Compliance and containment in social distancing: mathematical modeling of COVID-19 across townships

Xiang Chen et al.

Summary: During the early development of COVID-19, large-scale preventive measures were implemented to slow international and domestic transmissions, however, community spread remained a key factor in new infections. Researchers proposed a meso-scale mathematical model named the MSEIR model, based on town-level infection data in Connecticut, to evaluate the impact of different social distancing policies on epidemic curves, providing a foundation for community-level assessment and preparedness for COVID-19.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE (2021)

Article Psychology, Biological

Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities

Bo Huang et al.

Summary: Vaccination combined with physical distancing can effectively control resurgences of COVID-19, especially in cities with high population density. Vaccination can reduce the duration of physical distancing, while moderate physical distancing measures can effectively control infection numbers in high-density cities.

NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR (2021)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19 spread in Brazil

Marcia C. Castro et al.

Summary: The study found that COVID-19 in Brazil is spreading rapidly across municipalities with distinct spatial and temporal patterns of clustering, trajectories, and speed. Analysis shows that inadequate policy measures have led to high transmission and mortality burdens. The current surge in cases and deaths, along with the circulation of concerning variants, highlights the need for government to strengthen prevention and control measures.

SCIENCE (2021)

Editorial Material Medicine, General & Internal

How long does covid-19 immunity last?

Chris Baraniuk

BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL (2021)

Article Health Care Sciences & Services

Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries

Zebin Zhao et al.

Summary: The ongoing spread of COVID-19 in most South and Southeast Asian countries has severe health and economic impacts. Strict nonpharmaceutical interventions are crucial in reducing the spread of the virus, with vaccinations not proving to be significantly effective in reducing daily new cases.

HEALTHCARE (2021)

Article Health Care Sciences & Services

Measuring the effect of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) on mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic using global mobility data

Berber T. Snoeijer et al.

Summary: Governmental Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) play a crucial role in controlling the spread of COVID-19 by reducing population mobility. Lockdown measures and limitations on public gatherings have the most significant impact on the scale and rate of mobility changes, while NPIs like school closures and shutdown of businesses are closely correlated in timing and occurrence.

NPJ DIGITAL MEDICINE (2021)

Review Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Machine Learning in Epidemiology and Health Outcomes Research

Timothy L. Wiemken et al.

ANNUAL REVIEW OF PUBLIC HEALTH, VOL 41 (2020)

Article Engineering, Environmental

Ensemble data assimilation methods for improving river water quality forecasting accuracy

Sibren Loos et al.

WATER RESEARCH (2020)

Article Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications

ComDA: A common software for nonlinear and Non -Gaussian Land Data Assimilation

Feng Liu et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE (2020)

Letter Infectious Diseases

An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time

Ensheng Dong et al.

LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES (2020)

Review Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Harmonizing models and observations: Data assimilation in Earth system science

Xin Li et al.

SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES (2020)

Editorial Material Multidisciplinary Sciences

Mobile phone data for informing public health actions across the COVID-19 pandemic life cycle

Nuria Oliver et al.

SCIENCE ADVANCES (2020)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

An epidemiological modelling approach for COVID-19 via data assimilation

Philip Nadler et al.

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY (2020)

Article Green & Sustainable Science & Technology

Big data assimilation to improve the predictability of COVID-19

Xin Li et al.

GEOGRAPHY AND SUSTAINABILITY (2020)

Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Particle filters for high-dimensional geoscience applications: A review

Peter Jan van Leeuwen et al.

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2019)

Review Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

A Systematic Review of Social Contact Surveys to Inform Transmission Models of Close-contact Infections

Thang Hoang et al.

EPIDEMIOLOGY (2019)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Data assimilation as a learning tool to infer ordinary differential equation representations of dynamical models

Marc Bocquet et al.

NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS (2019)

Article Water Resources

Real-time projections of cholera outbreaks through data assimilation and rainfall forecasting

Damiano Pasetto et al.

ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES (2017)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Rodent reservoirs of future zoonotic diseases

Barbara A. Han et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2015)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Real-time influenza forecasts during the 2012-2013 season

Jeffrey Shaman et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2013)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

Jeffrey Shaman et al.

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (2012)

Article Biology

Daniel Bernoulli's epidemiological model revisited

K Dietz et al.

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES (2002)

Article Physics, Fluids & Plasmas

Spread of epidemic disease on networks

MEJ Newman

PHYSICAL REVIEW E (2002)

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health

Data, design, and background knowledge in etiologic inference

JM Robins

EPIDEMIOLOGY (2001)