Quantitative ecological risk assessment of oil spills: The case of the Fernando de Noronha Archipelago

The upward trend in maritime oil transport increases the risk of oil spills, which have the potential to cause considerable damage to the marine environment. Therefore, a formal approach to quantify such risks is required. In mid-2010, a conservative Quantitative Ecological Risk Assessment based on population modeling, was performed in the Fernando de Noronha Archipelago. In this research, we enhance a previous assessment using the following models: (i) a Lagrangian approach to perform oil spill simulations, and (ii) the estimated frequency of accidents aggregating databases and expert opinions through a Bayesian-based method. Then, we quantify ecological risks as probabilities of half loss (i.e., 50 % population size decline) of a representative species of the archipelago's ecosystem. The results are summarized into risk categories to be straightforwardly communicated to the general public and provide reliable information that can aid decision-makers in coping with these events.

Automated summary

The increasing maritime oil transport poses a higher risk of oil spills, which can cause significant damage to the marine environment. Therefore, it is necessary to quantitatively assess and communicate these risks. In this research, we enhance a previous assessment by using oil spill simulations and estimating the frequency of accidents through Bayesian-based methods. We quantify ecological risks in terms of probabilities of half loss of a representative species and provide reliable information for decision-makers to address these events.