Journal
JOURNAL OF UROLOGY
Volume 195, Issue 2, Pages 313-320Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.juro.2015.08.087
Keywords
prostatic neoplasms; prospective studies; watchful waiting
Categories
Funding
- Canary Foundation
- National Cancer Institute at the National Institutes of Health Early Detection Research Network [U01 CA086402]
- National Institutes of Health [P30 CA054174]
- National Institutes of Health (Pacific Northwest Prostate Cancer SPORE) [P50 CA097186]
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Purpose: Active surveillance represents a strategy to address the overtreatment of prostate cancer, yet uncertainty regarding individual patient outcomes remains a concern. We evaluated outcomes in a prospective multicenter study of active surveillance. Materials and Methods: We studied 905 men in the prospective Canary PASS enrolled between 2008 and 2013. We collected clinical data at study entry and at prespecified intervals, and determined associations with adverse reclassification, defined as increased Gleason grade or greater cancer volume on followup biopsy. We also evaluated the relationships of clinical parameters with pathology findings in participants who underwent surgery after a period of active surveillance. Results: At a median followup of 28 months 24% of participants experienced adverse reclassification, of whom 53% underwent treatment while 31% continued on active surveillance. Overall 19% of participants received treatment, 68% with adverse reclassification, while 32% opted for treatment without disease reclassification. In multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling the percent of biopsy cores with cancer, body mass index and prostate specific antigen density were associated with adverse reclassification (p = 0.01, 0.04, 0.04, respectively). Of 103 participants subsequently treated with radical prostatectomy 34% had adverse pathology, defined as primary pattern 4-5 or nonorgan confined disease, including 2 with positive lymph nodes, with no significant relationship between risk category at diagnosis and findings at surgery (p = 0.76). Conclusions: Most men remain on active surveillance at 5 years without adverse reclassification or adverse pathology at surgery. However, clinical factors had only a modest association with disease reclassification, supporting the need for approaches that improve the prediction of this outcome.
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