Impact Assessment of the Land Use Dynamics and Water Pollution on Ecosystem Service Value of the Nile Delta Coastal Lakes, Egypt

The Nile Delta, in northern Egypt, is an extensive wetland with many lakes. The land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes and water pollution of these lakes are greatly affecting the sustainable development and the ecosystem. This study aims to investigate the impact of LULC and the water quality of Edku, Manzala, and Burullus lakes on the ecosystem service value (ESV) due to recent economic development. The changes of ESV associated with LULC dynamics and changes are calculated and evaluated using the integration of both the geographic information system and remote sensing techniques. The images of the years 2011 and 2021 are used to study the LULC changes and predict the land use and ESV of the study area for the year 2031. Furthermore, the effects of the developments during the period 2011-2021 on water quality are presented and evaluated. The land use evaluation during the period 2011-2021 showed that the economic development positively affected the water surface and urban areas changes and the water quality of the three lakes; however, the water pollution of Manzala lake is still extremely high. The water surface of Edku, Burullus, and Manzala lakes increased by 2.46%, 0.83%, and 15.69%, respectively, and 12.47%, 0.74%, and 2.24%, respectively, for the urban changes. The changes during the period 2011-2021 show that Manzala lake ESV increased by 4.91%, and it may decrease by 0.11% during the period 2021-2031. The ESV during the periods 2011-2021 and 2021-2031 is 5.04% and - 4.17%, respectively, for the Burullus lake, and - 0.89% and - 6.20%, respectively, for Edku lake. These results reveal that the ESV is vital for land resources management of the lakes and development strategies should be accurately addressed to estimate the impact of these projects.

Automated summary

This study investigates the impact of land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes and water pollution on the ecosystem service value (ESV) of the Edku, Manzala, and Burullus lakes in the Nile Delta. The integration of geographic information system and remote sensing techniques is used to evaluate LULC dynamics and changes, predict land use and ESV, and assess the effects of economic development on water quality. The results show that economic development has positively affected water surface and urban areas changes, as well as water quality in the three lakes, except for Manzala lake which still has high water pollution.