Spatiotemporal variability in extreme precipitation and associated large-scale climate mechanisms in Central Asia from 1950 to 2019

Increased sea surface temperature, evaporation, air temperature, and moisture holding capacity associated with climate change may the enhance transport of moisture to Central Asia (CA), resulting in increased extreme precipitation events (EPEs). Changes in EPEs may affect the socioeconomic and ecological environment in typical arid and semi-arid regions of CA. Therefore, based on meteorological station data and four reanalyzed precip-itation datasets, we used the Taylor diagram, Geo-Detector method, and other methods to examine 10 EPE indices in CA from 1950 to 2019, analyzed their spatial-temporal trends, and quantified the influence of large-scale climate factors on EPEs. The results showed that GSWP3_W5E5 was the optimal option with better per-formance in terms of monthly and annual precipitation in CA. Overall, EPEs in CA showed an increasing trend, but an abrupt point was found in 1986, when very wet day precipitation (R95p) increased from 36.64 to 47.84 mm; the increasing rate also changed from 0.8 to 5.06 mm/10a. The changes in the Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High Intensity Index (NSI), NINO B Area Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Index (NINOB), Asian Zonal Circulation Index, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index are the main reasons for the increase in EPEs; the NSI and NINOB had the largest contributions to EPEs, with at 44.32 % and 43.80 %, respectively. Additionally, two-factor interactions had a more significant influence. Further analysis revealed that the abnormal warming of sea surface temperature and others led to the strengthen of water vapor transport in CA caused by a series of cyclones and anticyclonic anomalies in the westerly circulation zone, leading to the increase of EPEs. The results obtained in this study can contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the changes in EPEs and provide a reference for water resource management and disaster prevention in CA.

Automated summary

Increased sea surface temperature, evaporation, air temperature, and moisture holding capacity associated with climate change may enhance the transport of moisture to Central Asia, resulting in increased extreme precipitation events. The study analyzed 10 extreme precipitation indices in Central Asia from 1950 to 2019 and quantified the influence of large-scale climate factors on these events. The results showed an increasing trend in extreme precipitation events, with a significant change in 1986. The changes in climate indices and two-factor interactions were identified as the main reasons for the increase in extreme precipitation events. The study provides important insights for understanding the changes in extreme precipitation events and has implications for water resource management and disaster prevention in Central Asia.