Emission growth and drivers in Mainland Southeast Asian countries

Mainland Southeast Asian (MSEA) countries (Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, and Vietnam) are likely to become one of the next hotspots for emission reduction, since CO2 emissions in this area will have a two-thirds increase by 2040 due to rapid economy growth and associated energy consumption. As one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change, MSEA countries need to develop low-carbon roadmaps based on accurate emission data. This study provides emission inventories for MSEA countries for 2010-2019, based on the IPCC territorial emission accounting approach , including emissions from five types of fuels (i.e., coal, crude oil, oil products, natural gas, and biofuels & waste) used in 47 economic sectors. The results show that the emissions in MSEA countries are on the rise, with average annual growth rates ranging from 2.5% in Thailand to 19.3% in Laos. Biomass is one of the most important sources of carbon emissions, contributing between 11.8% and 76.7% of total carbon emissions, but its share has been declining in most countries, whereas the share of emissions from coal has risen sharply in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. We further examine the drivers behind the changes in emissions using index decomposition analysis. Economic growth was the strongest driver of growth in emissions, while population growth has only had a small effect on emission growth. Energy intensity varies widely across nations, but only significantly reduced CO2 emission growth in Thailand. The secondary sector considerable contributed to an increase in CO2 emissions in Laos and Vietnam, while the tertiary sector only moderately contributed to emissions in Thailand. Our study provides a better understanding of the composition and un-derlying factors of emission growth in MSEA countries, this could shape their low-carbon development pathway. Our results could also inform other emerging economies, which may become emission hotspots in the next de-cades, to develop low-carbon roadmaps, thereby contributing to the achievement of global climate change targets.

Automated summary

Mainland Southeast Asian countries are expected to become hotspots for emission reduction due to rapid economic growth and energy consumption. This study provides emission inventories for 2010-2019, showing an increase in emissions in these countries. Economic growth is the main driver of emission growth, while biomass and coal play significant roles in carbon emissions. The study highlights the need for low-carbon roadmaps and can inform other emerging economies in developing their own strategies.