Global Horizontal Irradiance in West Africa: Evaluation of the WRF-Solar Model in Convection-Permitting Mode with Ground Measurements

The number of solar power plants has increased in West Africa in recent years. Reliable reanalysis data and short-term forecasting of solar irradiance from numerical weather prediction models could provide an economic advantage for the planning and operation of solar power plants, especially in data-poor regions such as West Africa. This study presents a detailed assessment of different shortwave (SW) radiation schemes from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model option Solar (WRF-Solar), with appropriate configurations for different atmospheric conditions in Ghana and the southern part of Burkina Faso. We applied two 1-way nested domains (D1 = 15 km and D2 = 3 km) to investigate four different SW schemes, namely, the Community Atmosphere Model, Dudhia, RRTMG, Goddard, and RRTMG without aerosol and with aerosol inputs (RRTMG_AERO). The simulation results were validated using hourly measurements from different automatic weather stations established in the study region in recent years. The results show that the RRTMG_AERO_D01 generally outperforms the other SW radiation schemes to simulate global horizontal irradiance under all-sky condition [RMSE = 235 W m-2 (19%); MAE = 172 W m-2 (14%)] and also under cloudy skies. Moreover, RRTMG_AERO_D01 shows the best performance on a seasonal scale. Both the RRTMG_AERO and Dudhia experiments indicate a good performance under clear skies. However, the sensitivity study of different SW radiation schemes in the WRF-Solar model suggests that RRTMG_AERO gives better results. Therefore, it is recommended that it be used for solar irradiance forecasts over Ghana and the southern part of Burkina Faso.

Automated summary

The study evaluates different shortwave radiation schemes from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model option Solar (WRF-Solar) for solar irradiance forecasting in Ghana and the southern part of Burkina Faso. The results show that the RRTMG_AERO_D01 scheme generally outperforms other schemes in simulating global horizontal irradiance under different weather conditions. It is recommended to use the RRTMG_AERO scheme for solar irradiance forecasts in the study area.