Detecting low fragmented sites surrounding European protected areas-Implications for expansion of the Natura 2000 network

EU member states have set an ambitious goal of establishing additional protected areas (PAs) preserving 30 % of terrestrial land by 2030, specifying that additions should be of high ecological quality. A targeted selection of existing PA expansions into surroundings marginally fragmented by human infrastructure, may be an efficacious strategy to secure high ecological quality by maximizing PA area, accommodating species movement, and boosting climate change resilience. We used high-resolution data on effective mesh density, a metric measuring landscape fragmentation, in the vicinity of Natura 2000 PAs (N2k) to assess their potential for expansion. Our results show that contrary to most of Central Europe, mountainous and remote territories exhibit the lowest degree of fragmentation in N2k surroundings. Fragmentation in N2k surroundings is highly correlated with national population density, while economic wealth, measured by GDP per capita, plays a minor role. To address the long-standing dilemma of where scarce economic resources in nature conservation do the most-good, we conducted a country-level comparison between fragmentation in N2k surroundings and national expenditures on nature conservation relative to N2k area. Our results show a vast incongruity in resource availability for nature conservation among EU countries. Eastern European states, especially Romania, host underfunded N2k PAs while holding the highest potential for expanding N2k PAs into low fragmented lands. If protecting low fragmented lands is accepted as an efficacious strategy to meet EU biodiversity targets our results could be used to formulate pragmatic conservation decisions, while also ensuring high ecological quality of PA additions under climate change.

Automated summary

EU member states aim to establish additional protected areas preserving 30% of terrestrial land by 2030, with a focus on high ecological quality. Targeted expansion of existing protected areas into less fragmented surroundings can maximize area, facilitate species movement, and enhance climate change resilience. Our study found that mountainous and remote regions have the lowest fragmentation levels in the vicinity of Natura 2000 protected areas, which are highly correlated with national population density rather than economic wealth. Additionally, there is a disparity in resource availability for nature conservation among EU countries, with Eastern European states, particularly Romania, having underfunded Natura 2000 protected areas but great potential for expansion into low fragmented lands.