4.7 Article

Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate

Related references

Note: Only part of the references are listed.
Review Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Process Drivers, Inter-Model Spread, and the Path Forward: A Review of Amplified Arctic Warming

Patrick C. Taylor et al.

Summary: Arctic amplification (AA) is a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean process, and its mechanisms have been clarified through over a century of research. However, the uncertainty in Arctic climate projections is larger than in any other region, requiring a quantitative process understanding to reduce uncertainty. This paper reviews the history of AA science, summarizes observed Arctic changes, discusses modeling approaches and feedback diagnostics, and provides recommendations to accelerate progress towards reduced uncertainty.

FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE (2022)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Sea ice-air interactions amplify multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic and Arctic region

Jiechun Deng et al.

Summary: The study shows that sea ice-air interactions are crucial for multidecadal climate variability in both the Arctic and North Atlantic. By amplifying multidecadal variations in sea-ice cover, sea surface temperatures, and surface air temperature, sea ice-air interactions mainly affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation through changes in surface fluxes.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2022)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones

Chelsea L. Parker et al.

Summary: Rapid warming and Arctic sea ice melt intensify regional storms, causing damage to local ecosystems, communities, and industries. Although recent climate change has not had a significant impact on Arctic cyclone characteristics, future climate change is projected to increase cyclone intensity and exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2022)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The Role of Atmospheric Blocking in Regulating Arctic Warming

Cheng You et al.

Summary: Using ERA5 reanalysis, positive trends in poleward transport of moisture and heat over the winter Barents Sea sector and summer East Siberian Sea sector during 1979-2018 were found. The increase in blocking occurrence can explain these trends. The high linear correlation between blocking occurrence and temperature suggests their contribution to the regional warming trend.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2022)

Article Environmental Sciences

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Mika Rantanen et al.

Summary: Analyses of observations and climate simulations suggest that Arctic Amplification has been stronger than expected and underestimated in climate models. The warming in the Arctic has been nearly four times faster than the global average over the past 43 years, which is a higher ratio than previously reported. This finding indicates the urgency and severity of Arctic warming.

COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2022)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

Ralf Doscher et al.

Summary: EC-Earth3 is a Earth system model contributing to CMIP6, featuring a flexible coupling framework, various model configurations, ensuring simulations comparability across different HPC systems, and demonstrating improved physical and dynamic features. It represents a clear step forward for European community ESM with improved physical performance compared to CMIP5 version.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2022)

Article Environmental Sciences

Rare events in the Arctic

James E. Overland

Summary: The Arctic sea ice has become thinner over the past two decades, leading to extreme events in climate and ecosystems such as permafrost thawing, thinning sea ice, and wildfires. Natural variability in the atmosphere, coupled with ongoing Arctic Amplification, contributes to these events. Without reducing CO2 emissions, more diverse types of Arctic extremes are expected in the coming decades, with impacts spreading beyond the Arctic region.

CLIMATIC CHANGE (2021)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Arctic Cyclones and Their Interactions With the Declining Sea Ice: A Recent Climatology

E. Valkonen et al.

Summary: The study found an increasing trend in cyclone counts in the Arctic region, with cold season cyclone counts related to decreased sea ice concentration throughout the year. There is a relationship between cyclone intensity measured by ACE and surface conditions.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2021)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Summer Cyclones and Their Association With Short-Term Sea Ice Variability in the Pacific Sector of the Arctic

Peter M. Finocchio et al.

Summary: The study investigates the impacts of summer cyclones on sea ice in the Pacific sector of the Arctic, revealing that cyclones earlier in the melt season are associated with less sea ice loss, while those later in the season accelerate ice loss. Factors such as surface energy and wind forcing play key roles in determining the effects of cyclones on sea ice.

FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE (2021)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport

R. Bintanja et al.

SCIENCE ADVANCES (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

G. Danabasoglu et al.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2020)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Dirk Notz et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Climate State Dependence of Arctic Precipitation Variability

L. Bogerd et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2020)

Review Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Extreme weather and climate events in northern areas: A review

John E. Walsh et al.

EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS (2020)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

What Configuration of the Atmospheric Circulation Drives Extreme Net and Total Moisture Transport Into the Arctic

L. Papritz et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

UK Community Earth System Modeling for CMIP6

Catherine A. Senior et al.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

GISS-E2.1: Configurations and Climatology

Maxwell Kelley et al.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2020)

Article Environmental Sciences

Extremes become routine in an emerging new Arctic

Laura Landrum et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Australian Earth System Model: ACCESS-ESM1.5

Tilo Ziehn et al.

JOURNAL OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE (2020)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and feedbacks

Tomohiro Hajima et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Differences between Arctic Interannual and Decadal Variability across Climate States

Jesse Reusen et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Evaluation of CMIP6 DECK Experiments With CNRM-CM6-1

A. Voldoire et al.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2019)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

The role of cyclone activity in snow accumulation on Arctic sea ice

M. A. Webster et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2

Thorsten Mauritsen et al.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Evaluation of CNRM Earth System Model, CNRM-ESM2-1: Role of Earth System Processes in Present-Day and Future Climate

Roland Seferian et al.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2019)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6

Hiroaki Tatebe et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2019)

Article Geography, Physical

Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models

John R. Mioduszewski et al.

CRYOSPHERE (2019)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model Version 2.0, MRI-ESM2.0: Description and Basic Evaluation of the Physical Component

Seiji Yukimoto et al.

JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN (2019)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3)

Neil C. Swart et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2019)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Role of polar anticyclones and mid-latitude cyclones for Arctic summertime sea-ice melting

Heini Wernli et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2018)

Review Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Role of air-mass transformations in exchange between the Arctic and mid-latitudes

Felix Pithan et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2018)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Simulation of observed climate changes in 1850-2014 with climate model INM-CMS

Evgeny Volodin et al.

EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS (2018)

Article Environmental Sciences

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

A. Rinke et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2017)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Exceptional Air Mass Transport and Dynamical Drivers of an Extreme Wintertime Arctic Warm Event

Hanin Binder et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2017)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Response of the lower troposphere to moisture intrusions into the Arctic

Erik Johansson et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2017)

Article Environmental Sciences

Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice

Qinghua Ding et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2017)

Article Oceanography

Arctic sea ice in CMIP5 climate model projections and their seasonal variability

Huang Fei et al.

ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

GLOBAL CLIMATOLOGIES OF EULERIAN AND LAGRANGIAN FLOW FEATURES BASED ON ERA-INTERIM

Michael Sprenger et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2017)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Impact of the Extreme Winter 2015/16 Arctic Cyclone on the Barents-Kara Seas

Linette N. Boisvert et al.

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW (2016)

Review Environmental Sciences

The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: A review on processes, past and future changes, and their impacts

Timo Vihma et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Surface air temperature variability and trends in the Arctic: new amplification assessment and regionalisation

Ola M. Johannessen et al.

TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY (2016)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Midlatitude Moisture Contribution to Recent Arctic Tropospheric Summertime Variability

Frederic Laliberte et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2014)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models

Felix Pithan et al.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2014)

Article Environmental Sciences

Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high-latitudes

James A. Screen

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2014)

Article Environmental Sciences

Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales

James E. Overland et al.

EARTHS FUTURE (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Community Earth System Model A Framework for Collaborative Research

James W. Hurrell et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2013)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth

Torben Koenigk et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2013)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Large-scale circulation associated with moisture intrusions into the Arctic during winter

Cian Woods et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2013)

Article Geography, Physical

Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979-2010

D. J. Cavalieri et al.

CRYOSPHERE (2012)

Article Geography, Physical

Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis

Mark C. Serreze et al.

GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE (2011)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice

James E. Overland et al.

TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY (2010)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Polar amplification in a coupled climate model with locked albedo

Rune Grand Graversen et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2009)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979-2008

Ian Simmonds et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2009)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Human-induced arctic moistening

Seung-Ki Min et al.

SCIENCE (2008)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast

Julienne Stroeve et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2007)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Surface cyclones in the ERA-40 dataset (1958-2001). Part I: Novel identification method and global climatology

Heini Wernli et al.

JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (2006)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability

OM Johannessen et al.

TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY (2004)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Modes of the wintertime Arctic temperature variability

VA Semenov et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2003)