Everything Hits at Once: How Remote Rainfall Matters for the Prediction of the 2021 North American Heat Wave

In June 2021, Western North America experienced an intense heat wave with unprecedented temperatures and far-reaching socio-economic consequences. Anomalous rainfall in the West Pacific triggers a cascade of weather events across the Pacific, which build up a high-amplitude ridge over Canada and ultimately lead to the heat wave. We show that the response of the jet stream to diabatically enhanced ascending motion in extratropical cyclones represents a predictability barrier with regard to the heat wave magnitude. Therefore, probabilistic weather forecasts are only able to predict the extremity of the heat wave once the complex cascade of weather events is captured. Our results highlight the key role of the sequence of individual weather events in limiting the predictability of this extreme event. We therefore conclude that it is not sufficient to consider such rare events in isolation but it is essential to account for the whole cascade over different spatiotemporal scales.

Automated summary

In June 2021, Western North America experienced an unprecedented heat wave with extreme temperatures and significant socio-economic impact. The heat wave was triggered by anomalous rainfall in the West Pacific that set off a chain of weather events, ultimately leading to a high-amplitude ridge over Canada. Our study shows that the predictability of the heat wave magnitude is limited by the response of the jet stream to diabatically enhanced ascending motion in extratropical cyclones. Therefore, probabilistic weather forecasts can only predict the severity of the heat wave once the complex cascade of weather events is captured.