Quantifying war-induced crop losses in Ukraine in near real time to strengthen local and global food security

We use a 4-year panel (2019-2022) of 10,125 village councils in Ukraine to estimate effects of the war started by Russia on area and expected yield of winter crops aggregated up from the field level. Satellite imagery is used to provide information on direct damage to agricultural fields; classify crop cover using machine learning; and compute the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for winter cereal fields as a proxy for yield. Without conflict, winter crop area would have been 9.35 rather than 8.38 million ha, a 0.97 million ha reduction, only 14% of which can be attributed to direct conflict effects. The estimated drop associated with the conflict in NDVI for winter wheat, which is particularly pronounced for small farms, translates into an additional reduction of output by about 1.9 million tons for a total of 4.84 million tons. Taking area and yield reduction together suggests a war-induced loss of winter wheat output of up to 17% assuming the 2022 winter wheat crop was fully harvested.

Automated summary

Using a panel of 10,125 village councils in Ukraine from 2019 to 2022, we examine the impact of the war initiated by Russia on the area and expected yield of winter crops. Satellite imagery is used to assess damage to agricultural fields, classify crop cover, and calculate the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy for yield. We find that the conflict has led to a reduction in winter crop area by 0.97 million hectares, with only 14% attributable to direct conflict effects. The estimated reduction in winter wheat output, particularly for small farms, amounts to 1.9 million tons, resulting in a potential war-induced loss of up to 17% of the total winter wheat output assuming full harvest in 2022.