Multimodal distribution of transient time of predator extinction in a three-species food chain

The transient dynamics capture the time history in the behavior of a system before reaching an attractor. This paper deals with the statistics of transient dynamics in a classic tri-trophic food chain with bistability. The species of the food chain model either coexist or undergo a partial extinction with predator death after a transient time depending upon the initial population density. The distribution of transient time to predator extinction shows interesting patterns of inhomogeneity and anisotropy in the basin of the predator-free state. More precisely, the distribution shows a multimodal character when the initial points are located near a basin boundary and a unimodal character when chosen from a location far away from the boundary. The distribution is also anisotropic because the number of modes depends on the direction of the local of initial points. We define two new metrics, viz., homogeneity index and local isotropic index, to characterize the distinctive features of the distribution. We explain the origin of such multimodal distributions and try to present their ecological implications.

Automated summary

This paper discusses the statistics of transient dynamics in a classic tri-trophic food chain with bistability. It is found that the distribution of the transient time to predator extinction exhibits interesting patterns of inhomogeneity and anisotropy in the basin of the predator-free state. Two new metrics, homogeneity index and local isotropic index, are introduced to characterize the distinctive features of the distribution. The paper also explains the origin of multimodal distributions and presents their ecological implications.