Different responses of Japanese encephalitis to weather variables among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, China, 2005-2019

This study evaluated epidemic temporal aspects of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and investigated the weather threshold of JE response across eight climate subtypes between 2005 and 2019 in Gansu Province, China. Epidemiological data were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). Three epidemic temporal indices [frequency index (alpha), duration index (beta), and intensity index (gamma)] were adopted for the comparison of epidemic features among different climate subtypes. In addition, the local indicators of spatial association (LISA) technique was used to detect the hot-spot areas. The category and regression tree (CART) model was used to detect the response threshold of weather variables in hot-spot areas across climate subtypes. Among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, in most hot-spot areas (i.e., high-high clusters), alpha, beta, and gamma were detected in the climate subtypes of subtropical winter dry (Cwa), temperate oceanic continental (Cwb), and continental winter dry (Dwa and Dwb). According to the CART analysis, a minimum monthly temperature is required for Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) transmission, with different threshold values among the climatic subtypes. In temperate climate zones (Cwa and Cwb), this threshold is 19 degrees C at a 1-month lag. It is lower in continental winter dry climate zones: 18 degrees C in Dwa (snow climate, dry winter, and hot summer) and 16 degrees C in Dwb (snow climate, dry winter, and warm summer). Additionally, some areas of the areas with temperate arid (BWk and BSk) had the first JE cases. Further studies to detect whether the climate change influence the JEV's distribution in Gansu Province are needed.

Automated summary

This study evaluated the temporal aspects of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and identified the weather threshold of JE transmission in different climate subtypes in Gansu Province, China. Epidemiological data were collected and analyzed to compare epidemic features and detect hot-spot areas. The findings showed that in most hot-spot areas, JE cases occurred in subtropical and continental winter dry climates. The study also revealed different minimum monthly temperature thresholds for JEV transmission in different climate zones. Further research is needed to investigate the impact of climate change on JEV's distribution in Gansu Province.