Impact of climate change on wind energy across North America under climate change scenario RCP8.5

Wind energy is one of the renewable energies considered by many nations as a strategy to mitigate the impact of climate change. There are also impacts of climate change on wind energy. Previous studies investigated the effect of climate change on wind energy in North America by using future projections with spatial resolutions of about 100 km (i.e., around 1 degrees x 1 degrees simulation grid) and monthly to yearly average wind speeds or a high spatial resolution (< 50 km) but a few simulations (< 5). A coarse resolution can create biases and is insufficient to appreciate extremes. A smaller number of simulations (e.g., < 5) are inadequate for understanding the modeling uncertainties. To better appreciate the impact of climate change on wind energies in a future changing climate, 15 simulations from high-resolution Reginal Climate Models (RCMs) considering the Representative Concen-tration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario were used in the present study. These datasets have a spatial resolution of about 0.4 degrees and a temporal resolution of one hour from 1950 to 2100. The impact of climate change on wind energy was studied on a seasonal and yearly basis. The impact of climate change on design-level wind speeds and structural reliability across North America was also investigated.

Automated summary

Wind energy is seen as a renewable energy source to mitigate climate change impacts. However, climate change itself also affects wind energy. Previous studies have investigated the impact of climate change on wind energy in North America, but with limited spatial resolutions and simulations. In this study, high-resolution regional climate models were used to simulate the impact of climate change on wind energy, considering future emission scenarios. The results provide insights into the seasonal and yearly variations of wind energy and its implications for structural reliability in North America.