Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Tuberculosis at the County-Level in Shandong Province, China, 2016-2020

(1) Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease that seriously endangers health and restricts economic and social development. Shandong Province has the second largest population in China with a high TB burden. This study aimed to detect the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal pattern of reported TB incidence in Shandong Province and provide a scientific basis to develop more effective strategies for TB prevention and control. (2) Methods: The age, gender, and occupational distribution characteristics of the cases were described. The Seasonal-Trend LOESS decomposition method, global spatial autocorrelation statistic, local spatial autocorrelation statistics, and spatial-temporal scanning were used to decompose time series, analyze the spatial aggregation, detect cold and hot spots, and analyze the spatio-temporal aggregation of reported incidence. (3) Results: A total of 135,185 TB cases were reported in Shandong Province during the five years 2016-2020. Men and farmers are the main populations of TB patients. The time-series of reported tuberculosis incidence had a long-term decreasing trend with clear seasonality. There was aggregation in the spatial distribution, and the areas with a high reported incidence of TB were mainly clustered in the northwest and southeast of Shandong. The temporal scan also yielded similar results. (4) Conclusions: Health policy authorities should develop targeted prevention and control measures based on epidemiological characteristics to prevent and control TB more effectively.

Automated summary

This study aimed to detect the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal pattern of reported tuberculosis incidence in Shandong Province. The results showed that men and farmers were the main populations affected by tuberculosis. The reported incidence of tuberculosis had a long-term decreasing trend with clear seasonality. Spatially, areas with high reported incidence were mainly clustered in the northwest and southeast regions of Shandong.