A Note on an Epidemic Model with Cautionary Response in the Presence of Asymptomatic Individuals

We analyse a simple disease transmission model accounting for demographic features and an illness appearing in two forms, asymptomatic and symptomatic. Its main feature is the epidemic-induced fear of the population, for which contacts are reduced, responding to increasing symptomatic numbers. We find that in the presence of asymptomatic individuals, if the progression rate to symptomatic is high, protection measures may prevent the whole population becoming infected. The results also elucidate the importance of assessing transmission rates as quickly as possible.

Automated summary

This article analyzes a simple disease transmission model that takes into account demographic features and the appearance of illnesses in two forms: asymptomatic and symptomatic. The main feature of this model is the population's fear induced by the epidemic, which leads to reduced contact in response to increasing symptomatic numbers. The study finds that with the presence of asymptomatic individuals, if the progression rate to symptomatic is high, protective measures can prevent the entire population from becoming infected. The results also highlight the importance of quickly assessing transmission rates.