4.7 Article

Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on major currencies: Russia-Ukraine tensions

Journal

FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 51, Issue -, Pages -

Publisher

ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103440

Keywords

Geopolitical risk; Foreign exchange rates; Quantile causality-in-means; Quantile regression model; Quantile-on-quantile regression; Russia; Ukraine

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In this nonparametric quantile-on-quantile regression analysis, we find that the impact of Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk on major currencies' exchange rates is asymmetric, especially at low and high extremes. The impact is also currency-specific and depends on the country's legal system. Our findings suggest that the Euro and the Swiss Franc can serve as attractive hedge currencies against GPR in currency portfolios.
In a nonparametric quantile-on-quantile regression analysis, we study the asymmetric effects of the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk (GPR) on the seven major currencies in terms of the USD-denominated exchange rates. We find that GPR's impact on exchange rates is asymmetric, especially at low and high extremes, currency-specific, and depends on whether the country's legal system is predominantly based on common law or otherwise. Our findings signal the attractiveness of the Euro and the Swiss Franc currencies as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The investment and policy implications of the findings are discussed.

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