Related references
Note: Only part of the references are listed.
Article
International Relations
Paola Vesco et al.
Summary: This article presents the results and lessons learned from a prediction competition organized by ViEWS to improve collective scientific knowledge on forecasting (de-)escalation in Africa. The competition evaluated models based on qualitative and quantitative criteria and all models contributed to advance the research frontier. The research shows that a simple ensemble prediction model can improve predictions from the group, and future competitions can incentivize diverse contributions to promote scientific knowledge.
INTERNATIONAL INTERACTIONS
(2022)
Article
International Relations
K. R. I. S. T. I. A. N. S. K. R. E. D. E. GLEDITSCH
Summary: Significant events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian crisis and Russian invasion have sparked interest in how research can inform policy responses. Research provides important evidence on the potential consequences of different actions, but conclusions remain uncertain and dependent on assumptions. Policy prescriptions must be seen as predictions since they make claims about future consequences. Discussions about policy consequences can be improved by paying attention to what we have learned about predictions and how to predict better. It is also valuable to consider what can be learned from predictions regardless of their accuracy. Research is more likely to be useful to non-academics if presented in a clear and accessible manner. Additionally, thinking about decision-making processes can potentially enhance predictions.
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY
(2022)
Article
International Relations
Havard Hegre et al.
Summary: Recent research on violence forecasting has focused on predicting the presence or absence of conflict in a given location, with less attention given to predicting changes in violence. This article introduces a prediction competition aimed at forecasting changes in state-based violence, highlighting the importance of innovative models and methodological advances.
INTERNATIONAL INTERACTIONS
(2022)
Article
International Relations
Therese Pettersson et al.
Summary: The article discusses the trend in organized violence based on data from UCDP. In 2020, there was an increase in deaths caused by organized violence worldwide, as well as a rise in the number of conflicts. Most conflicts occurred in Africa during that year.
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
International Relations
Havard Hegre et al.
Summary: The article introduces the latest update to the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System, which includes a new infrastructure and forecasting models to enhance overall performance, particularly in classifying high- and low-risk cases. Improved evaluation procedures allow for the development of specialized models for different time frames, with a retrospective evaluation of past performance. New forecasts indicate a continued conflict situation in Nigeria, Somalia, and the DRC, with signs of decreased risk in Cameroon and Mozambique.
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Matina Halkia et al.
PROGRESS IN DISASTER SCIENCE
(2020)
Article
International Relations
Havard Hegre et al.
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH
(2019)
Article
Political Science
Benjamin E. Goldsmith et al.
JOURNAL OF GENOCIDE RESEARCH
(2018)
Article
International Relations
Michael Colaresi et al.
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH
(2017)
Article
International Relations
Erik Melander et al.
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH
(2016)
Article
International Relations
Nils B. Weidmann et al.
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH
(2015)
Article
International Relations
Ralph Sundberg et al.
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH
(2013)
Article
International Relations
Kristine Eck
COOPERATION AND CONFLICT
(2012)
Article
International Relations
Clionadh Raleigh et al.
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH
(2010)
Article
International Relations
NP Gleditsch et al.
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH
(2002)
