A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems☆

We review and compare conflict early warning systems on three dimensions: transparency and accessibility, key parameters, and forecasts. The review reveals a need for improved transparency and accessibility of data and code, considerable variation in key parameters across systems, and significant overlaps in countries with the highest risk. We propose that developing standards and platforms that promote transparency, accessibility, and inter-system cooperation can improve knowledge proliferation and system development to mitigate and prevent political violence.(c) 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Institute of Forecasters. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Automated summary

This article reviews and compares conflict early warning systems in terms of transparency and accessibility, key parameters, and forecasts. The review highlights the need for improved transparency and accessibility of data and code, as well as significant variations in key parameters across systems and overlaps in high-risk countries. The article suggests developing standards and platforms to promote transparency, accessibility, and inter-system cooperation, in order to enhance knowledge proliferation and system development for mitigating and preventing political violence.