Adaptation to expected and unexpected weather fluctuations: Evidence from Bangladeshi smallholder farmers

Whether and how quickly farmers adapt to a changing climate is of paramount importance to under-standing the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture. Yet the literature on adaptation has paid less attention to the distinction between ex-ante adjustments to expected weather and ex-post responses to unexpected shocks. Using a three-wave, nationally representative Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey, this paper exploits large variation in precipitation and temperature to estimate the weather impacts on Bangladesh agriculture and to identify the associated productive adaptations to expected and unexpected weather changes. It presents evidence that Bangladeshi farmers are resilient to exposure of crops to temperatures below 32 degrees C through various adaptive activities such as reallocation of land and irrigation water between rice and non-rice crops, the adoption of non-rice improved seed varieties, and the adjustment of the input cost composition. But increased exposure to extreme heat above 32 degrees C causes significant declines in agricultural productivity in wet seasons. Although farmers increase irrigation water inputs to aus and aman rice against unexpected extreme heat, the adaptation effect remains lim-ited. The total cash cost associated with cultivation does not respond to weather changes, plausibly due to the presence of financial liquidity constraints. This study's finding adds to evidence of smallholder farm-ers' short-and medium-run productive responses to adverse climate change in the developing world.(c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

This study examines the weather impacts on agriculture in Bangladesh and identifies the productive adaptations of farmers to expected and unexpected weather changes. The findings suggest that Bangladeshi farmers are resilient to temperatures below 32 degrees C but suffer significant declines in agricultural productivity due to exposure to extreme heat. The study emphasizes the importance of understanding farmers' adaptations to climate change in developing countries.