Single- and multi-year ENSO events controlled by pantropical climate interactions

To better understand the diverse temporal evolutions of observed El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which are characterized as single- or multi-year, this study examines similar events in a 2200-year-long integration of Community Earth System Model, version 1. Results show that selective activation of inter- and intra-basin climate interactions (together, pantropical climate interactions) controls ENSO's evolution pattern. When ENSO preferentially activates inter-basin interactions with tropical Indian and/or Atlantic Oceans, it introduces negative feedbacks into the ENSO phase, resulting in single-year evolution. When ENSO preferentially activates intra-basin interactions with subtropical North Pacific, it causes positive feedbacks, producing multi-year evolution. Three key factors (developing-season intensity, pre-onset Pacific condition, and maximum zonal location) and their thresholds, which determine whether inter- or intra-basin interactions are activated and whether an event will become a single- or multi-year event, are identified. These findings offer a way to predict ENSO's evolution pattern by incorporating the controlling role of pantropical climate interactions.

Automated summary

This study investigates the temporal evolutions of observed El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. It finds that selective activation of climate interactions controls ENSO's evolution pattern, leading to either single-year or multi-year events. Three key factors and their thresholds are identified to determine the activation of inter- or intra-basin interactions and the duration of events.