Tularemia above the Treeline: Climate and Rodent Abundance Influences Exposure of a Sentinel Species, the Arctic Fox (Vulpes lagopus), to Francisella tularensis

Tularemia is a zoonotic disease found throughout most of the northern hemisphere that may experience range expansion with warming temperatures. Rodents and lagomorphs are reservoirs for the disease, and outbreaks of tularemia often follow peaks in their abundance. As small mammals dominate the diet of arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus), we determined whether they may serve as sentinels by identifying antibodies in live-captured and harvested foxes from northern Canada. Overall seroprevalence was 2% (CI95 1-2%) in 176 foxes harvested in 2018-2019 compared to 17% (CI95 12-22%) of 230 foxes captured live in 2011-2021. Prevalence was at an all-time high in 2018, following a peak in vole abundance in 2017. Antibodies were identified in fox pups born in 2018 and 2019, suggesting that F. tularensis was actively transmitted during the summers. High precipitation during the summer, increased snow cover and colder temperatures in May, and a higher abundance of voles were all associated with increased seroprevalence in live-captured foxes. Thus, exposure to F. tularensis is largely mediated through climate and rodent populations in the Canadian Arctic, and arctic foxes are useful sentinels for F. tularensis in northern ecosystems. Further studies should investigate whether infection impacts arctic fox survival and reproductive success in the circumpolar North.

Automated summary

Tularemia is a zoonotic disease that may expand its range with warming temperatures. In the Canadian Arctic, arctic foxes serve as sentinels for the disease, with seroprevalence varying with climate and rodent populations. High seroprevalence was observed in 2018, following a peak in vole abundance in 2017, and antibodies were detected in fox pups born in subsequent years. Climate factors such as high summer precipitation, increased snow cover, and higher vole abundance were associated with increased seroprevalence in live-captured foxes.