Journal
EARTHS FUTURE
Volume 10, Issue 12, Pages -Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF003118
Keywords
tropical cyclones; CMIP6 pseudo-global warming simulations; future changes; Southeast Asia; exposure; physical impacts
Funding
- Australian Government Endeavour Leadership Program [6614-2018]
- UNSW scholarship [Int'l MOUs PTFS-RSRE7073]
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This study quantifies potential future changes in the Southeast Asia tropical cyclone exposure climatology using simulations. The findings suggest that under future climate change scenarios, landfalling tropical cyclones are projected to be more intense, faster, and smaller, with a shift in landfall locations towards northern areas.
In this Pseudo-global Warming study, potential future changes in the Southeast Asia tropical cyclone (TC) exposure climatology are quantified. One hundred and seventeen landfalling TCs in the last 20 years are simulated with their current climate conditions and also with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble perturbed conditions under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 climate change scenarios. Our simulations suggest that landfalling TCs are projected to be 8% more intense at landfall, 2.8% faster and have smaller sizes by the end of the 21st century under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. In addition, TC landfall locations shift northward with tracks extending further inland toward Laos and Thailand. In particular, TC exposures, wind and rainfall impacts significantly increase in the northern Philippines, Taiwan, southwestern coast of China, and northern Vietnam; and significantly decrease in the southern areas of Southeast Asia and the southeastern coast of China.
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