Earthquake Magnitude and Frequency Forecasting in Northeastern Algeria using Time Series Analysis

This study uses two different time series forecasting approaches (parametric and non-parametric) to assess a frequency and magnitude forecasting of earthquakes above Mw 4.0 in Northeastern Algeria. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model encompasses the parametric approach, while the non-parametric method employs the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) approach. The ARIMA and SSA models were then used to train and forecast the annual number of earthquakes and annual maximum magnitude events occurring in Northeastern Algeria between 1910 and 2019, including 287 main events larger than Mw 4.0. The SSA method is used as a forecasting algorithm in this case, and the results are compared to those obtained by the ARIMA model. Based on the root mean square error (RMSE) criterion, the SSA forecasting model appears to be more appropriate than the ARIMA model. The consistency between the observation and the forecast is analyzed using a statistical test in terms of the total number of events, denoted as N-test. As a result, the findings indicate that the annual maximum magnitude in Northeastern Algeria between 2020 and 2030 will range from Mw 4.8 to Mw 5.1, while between four and six events with a magnitude of at least Mw 4.0 will occur annually.

Automated summary

This study compares two different time series forecasting methods (parametric and non-parametric) to predict the frequency and magnitude of earthquakes above Mw 4.0 in Northeastern Algeria. The parametric approach is based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, while the non-parametric approach utilizes the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method. The ARIMA and SSA models are trained and used to forecast the annual number of earthquakes and annual maximum magnitude events in Northeastern Algeria between 1910 and 2019. The results suggest that the SSA forecasting model is more accurate than the ARIMA model, as evaluated by the root mean square error (RMSE) criterion. According to the findings, the annual maximum magnitude in Northeastern Algeria between 2020 and 2030 is projected to range from Mw 4.8 to Mw 5.1, with an estimated four to six events of at least Mw 4.0 occurring each year.