Wind Power Generation Scheduling Accuracy in Europe: An Overview of ENTSO-E Countries

Despite the rapid spread of the use of wind energy to generate electricity, harnessing this energy source remains a great challenge due to its stochastic nature. One way of dealing with this is to prepare accurate wind power forecasts. This paper explored the accuracy of day-ahead and intraday scheduling of energy generation of the onshore and offshore wind farms of the member countries of the European Network of Transmission System Operators (ENTSO-E) in the period from 2013 to 2021. The precision of the scheduling activities showed a varying picture: the onshore wind farms of Germany, Spain, France, and Sweden produced more precise forecasts than others, with annual downward and upward regulatory needs between 0.8% and 14.4%, and from 0.8% to 6.5%, of the yearly energy generation, respectively. In certain countries, however, the forecasts were less accurate, with discrepancies exceeding 41% for downward and 132% for upward regulation. As for offshore wind farms, the annual downward and upward regulatory needs ranged between 0.9% and 61.7%, and from 1.3% to 44.1%, respectively, with Germany and Denmark producing the most accurate schedules. The innovative novelty and practical contributions of this study are that it determines and presents information related to the accuracy of the day-ahead and intraday wind power generation forecasting of the ENTSO-E countries, which is of practical relevance to the transmission system operators (TSOs), the main actors in the energy market and the decision-makers, too. This information may also help investors who invest in onshore and offshore wind farms with the economic aspects, and it may also greatly contribute to the market-related development of the management systems of energy storage solutions related to these technologies.

Automated summary

This paper examines the accuracy of wind power forecasts for onshore and offshore wind farms in European countries. The results show that Germany, Spain, France, and Sweden have more accurate forecasts for onshore wind farms, while some countries have less accurate forecasts. The accuracy of forecasts for offshore wind farms also varies, with Germany and Denmark having the most accurate schedules.