Historical and Projected Variations of Precipitation and Temperature and Their Extremes in Relation to Climatic Indices over the Gandaki River Basin, Central Himalaya

Changes in precipitation and temperature, especially in the Himalayan region, will have repercussions for socio-economic conditions in the future. Thus, this study aimed to understand the climatic trend and changes in one of the Himalayan River basins, i.e., Gandaki River Basin (GRB), Nepal. In particular, we analysed the historical (1985-2014) and projected (2015-2100) precipitation and temperature trend and their extremes using observation and 13 bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets. Additionally, the relationship between extreme precipitation/temperature indices and ocean-atmospheric circulation patterns were also analysed. The results showed an increasing trend of precipitation amount and temperature at annual and seasonal scales with the highest upward trend for precipitation in monsoon season and temperature in winter season. Among nine precipitation indices analysed, the wet extremes are projected to increase in all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios; with the highest increment of high-intensity related extremes (R10 mm and R20 mm). In contrast, dry spells will decline in the distant-future (2075-2100) as compared to near (2015-2044) and mid-future (2045-2074). Further, increment in temperature trend resulted in a decrease in cold related temperature extremes and an increase in warm related extremes. Furthermore, it was observed that the changes in precipitation and temperature extremes over GRB were influenced by large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation patterns. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were found to have a major role in driving precipitation extremes while AMO, SST and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have strong influence on temperature extremes. The results of this study will be useful for better understanding the implications of historical and future changes in precipitation and temperature and their extremes over the GRB.

Automated summary

This study aims to understand the trend and changes in precipitation and temperature in the Gandaki River Basin (GRB), Nepal, particularly in the Himalayan region. The research findings show an increasing trend in precipitation and temperature, with the highest increment in monsoon season and winter season. Wet extremes are projected to increase, while dry spells are expected to decline in the distant future. The increase in temperature trend leads to a decrease in cold related temperature extremes and an increase in warm related extremes. Large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation patterns were found to influence the changes in precipitation and temperature extremes over GRB. The study’s results provide valuable insights into the implications of historical and future changes in precipitation and temperature in the GRB.