Long-Term Survival among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 during the First Three Epidemic Waves: An Observational Study in a Northern Italy Hospital

The mortality rate of hospitalized COVID-19 patients differed strongly between the first three pandemic waves. Nevertheless, their long-term survival has been poorly assessed. The aim of this study was to compare the clinical characteristics and mortality rates of 825 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection who were hospitalized at the Alessandria hub hospital, in Northern Italy, during the first fifty days of the first three pandemic waves. Each subject was followed in terms of vital status for six months from the date of hospital admission or until deceased. Patients admitted during the three waves differed in age (p = 0.03), disease severity (p < 0.0001), Charlson comorbidity index (p = 0.0002), oxygen therapy (p = 0.002), and invasive mechanical ventilation (p < 0.0001). By the end of follow-up, 309 deaths (38.7%) were observed, of which 186 occurred during hub hospitalization (22.5%). Deaths were distributed differently among the waves (p < 0.0001), resulting in being higher amongst those subjects admitted during the first wave. The COVID-19 infection was reported as the main cause of death and patients with a higher mortality risk were those aged >= 65 years [adjusted HR = 3.40 (95% CI 2.20-5.24)], with a higher disease severity [adjusted HR = 1.87 (95%CI 1.43-2.45)], and those requiring oxygen therapy [adjusted HR = 2.30 (95%CI 1.61-3.30)]. In conclusion, COVID-19 patients admitted to our hub hospital during the second and the third waves had a lower risk of long-term mortality than those admitted during the first. Older age, more severe disease, and the need for oxygen therapy were among the strongest risk factors for poor prognosis.

Automated summary

The mortality rate of COVID-19 patients varied between different waves of the pandemic. Patients admitted during the first wave had a higher risk of mortality compared to those admitted during the second and third waves. Older age, more severe disease, and the need for oxygen therapy were identified as strong risk factors for poor prognosis.