Nationwide cardiovascular risk categorization: applying the European Society of Cardiology guidelines to the Swedish National Diabetes Register

Aims The 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) with a very high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk receive cardiovascular (CV)-protective glucose-lowering medication (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists or sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors). This analysis compared previous prescribing practices with the ESC recommendations. Methods and results Patients in the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR) with T2D, aged 18-90 years, not receiving CV-protective glucose-lowering medication in 2017 were identified, and the ESC criteria for very high CVD risk were applied. The composite outcome of major adverse CV events (MACEs; defined as CV death, non-fatal stroke or non-fatal myocardial infarction) during 2017 was calculated, and the number of MACE avoided with semaglutide, an example of a CV-protective glucose-lowering medication, was estimated for patients with a certain CV risk score. Of the 320 028 patients in the NDR with T2D who were not receiving CV-protective glucose-lowering medication, 129 512 patients had a very high CVD risk. Patients with a very high CVD risk had a high incidence of MACE (75.4 events/1000 person-years), which was higher in those with atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) with and without elevated glycated haemoglobin (>9%; 136.5 and 90.8 events/1000 person-years, respectively). If patients with a very high CVD risk, according to the ESC, and ASCVD received semaglutide, 803 MACE may have been avoided in 2017. Conclusions This analysis highlights differences between previous prescribing practices in Sweden and the 2021 ESC guidelines and offers strategies to prioritize CV-protective glucose-lowering medication for patients who would benefit most. Lay Summary Type 2 diabetes, or T2D, causes blood sugar levels to get too high. Nearly one-third of people with T2D also have diseases of the heart and blood vessels, such as heart attacks and strokes. These are known as cardiovascular diseases or events. Some T2D medications can also lower the risk of cardiovascular disease. Using data from national healthcare registries, we looked at how many people with T2D in Sweden had a very high cardiovascular disease risk. Healthcare systems often have limited budgets and may not treat all people with a very high cardiovascular disease risk. So, we looked at ways to identify which patients with T2D would benefit most from treatment. We also estimated how many cardiovascular events may be prevented by giving these patients cardiovascular risk-lowering T2D medication, using a medication called semaglutide as an example.The registry included 348 857 people with T2D, and 91.7% (320 028) were not given cardiovascular risk-lowering T2D medications. Of the people not given medications, 40.5% (129 512) had a very high cardiovascular disease risk. On average, we found that people with a very high cardiovascular disease risk and previous cardiovascular events ended up having more cardiovascular events than those without previous events. People who also regularly had high average blood sugar levels, measured using a marker in the blood called glycated haemoglobin, or HbA1c, had even more cardiovascular events.Giving semaglutide to people with a very high cardiovascular disease risk who have already had a cardiovascular event may prevent around 803 cardiovascular events each year.

Automated summary

This study compares the prescribing practices in Sweden with the 2021 ESC guidelines for cardiovascular protection in patients with type 2 diabetes. The analysis highlights the high incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with a very high cardiovascular disease risk and suggests that prescribing cardiovascular-protective glucose-lowering medication, such as semaglutide, could potentially prevent a significant number of MACE.