Unprecedented droughts are expected to exacerbate urban inequalities in Southern Africa

Climate change-related drought risks are intensifying in many urban areas, making stakes particularly high in contexts of severe vulnerability. Yet, how social power, differential agency and economic visions will shape societal responses to droughts remains poorly understood. Here, we build a social-environmental scenario of the possible impacts of an unprecedented drought in Maputo, which epitomizes a Southern African city with highly uneven development and differential vulnerability across urban areas. To build the scenario, we draw on theoretical insights from critical social sciences and take Cape Town (2015-2017) as a case-in-point of a locally unprecedented drought in Southern Africa. We show that future droughts in Southern Africa will probably polarize urban inequalities, generate localized public health crises and regress progress in water access. Climate policies must address these inequalities and develop equitable water distribution and conservation measures to ensure sustainable and inclusive adaptation to future droughts.

Automated summary

Climate change-related drought risks are intensifying in urban areas, particularly in vulnerable contexts. However, the understanding of how social power, agency, and economic visions influence societal responses to droughts is limited. This study builds a scenario of the potential impacts of an unprecedented drought in Maputo, a city in Southern Africa with uneven development and vulnerability. The findings highlight the potential for future droughts to exacerbate urban inequalities, create public health crises, and hinder progress in water access. Climate policies need to address these inequalities and develop equitable measures for water distribution and conservation to ensure sustainable and inclusive adaptation to future droughts.