Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways

While important, coal power phase-out in models may be faster than is socio-politically feasible in highly coal-dependent countries. This research shows that reaching the temperature target with these constraints requires faster decline in emissions from the global North and in global oil and gas production. In IPCC pathways limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C, global coal power generation declines rapidly due to its emissions intensity and substitutability. However, we find that in countries heavily dependent on coal-China, India and South Africa-this translates to a national decline twice as rapid as that achieved historically for any power technology in any country, relative to system size. This raises questions about socio-political feasibility. Here we constrain an integrated assessment model to the Powering Past Coal Alliance's differentiated phase-out timelines of 2030 in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/European Union and 2050 elsewhere which, for large coal consumers, lies within the range of historical transitions. We find that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C then requires CO2 emissions reductions in the global North to be 50% more rapid than if this socio-political reality is ignored. This additional mitigation is focused on Europe and the United States, in transport and industry and implies more rapid decline in global oil and gas production.

Automated summary

While it is important to phase out coal power, it may be challenging to do so quickly in countries heavily reliant on coal. This research suggests that meeting temperature targets would require faster reduction of emissions from the global North and global oil and gas production. The rapid decline of coal power generation in pathways limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius raises questions about its feasibility in coal-dependent countries.