Powering past coal is not enough

Article Environmental Sciences

Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum

Stephen L. L. Bi et al.

Summary: This research presents a new approach to evaluate the potential risks of coal phase-out and the bottom-up momentum. The study highlights the importance of global coal phase-out for the Paris Agreement. It introduces the dynamic policy evaluation (DPE) method to assess the likelihood of PPCA participation and predicts potential leakage risks that may undermine sector-specific actions.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2023)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways

Greg Muttitt et al.

Summary: While it is important to phase out coal power, it may be challenging to do so quickly in countries heavily reliant on coal. This research suggests that meeting temperature targets would require faster reduction of emissions from the global North and global oil and gas production. The rapid decline of coal power generation in pathways limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius raises questions about its feasibility in coal-dependent countries.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2023)

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Article Environmental Sciences

A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts

Ida Sognnaes et al.

Summary: Using seven integrated assessment models, this study projects global energy CO2 emissions trajectories based on near-term mitigation efforts and assumptions on post-2030 efforts. Although a wide range of emissions scenarios is found for 2050, most of them result in median warming of less than 3 degrees C by 2100. However, even the most optimistic scenario is insufficient to limit global warming to 2 degrees C. The study also highlights the importance of diverse model intercomparisons and the exaggeration of carbon capture and storage use in representing policy with economy-wide carbon prices.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences