The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones

Rapid warming and Arctic sea ice melt will drive intensification of regional storms, increasing wind speeds and precipitation. Increasingly extreme storms exacerbate climate change effects and damage to local ecosystems, communities, and industries. In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global climate. However, the effect of a changing climate on Arctic cyclone behavior remains poorly understood. This study uses high resolution (4 km), regional modeling techniques and downscaled global climate reconstructions and projections to examine how recent and future climatic changes alter cyclone behavior. Results suggest that recent climate change has not yet had an appreciable effect on Arctic cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and increasing surface temperatures drive large increases in the near-surface temperature gradient, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and convection during cyclones. The future climate can alter cyclone trajectories and increase and prolong intensity with greatly augmented wind speeds, temperatures, and precipitation. Such changes in cyclone characteristics could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks. The increasing extreme nature of these weather events has implications for local ecosystems, communities, and socio-economic activities.

Automated summary

Rapid warming and Arctic sea ice melt intensify regional storms, causing damage to local ecosystems, communities, and industries. Although recent climate change has not had a significant impact on Arctic cyclone characteristics, future climate change is projected to increase cyclone intensity and exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming.