US winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events

The authors show that in recent decades compound climate extremes (i.e., hot, dry, and windy events) have increased and have reduced winter wheat yields in the U.S. Great Plains. The area most affected is the same area as that in 1930s Dust Bowl. Climate extremes cause significant winter wheat yield loss and can cause much greater impacts than single extremes in isolation when multiple extremes occur simultaneously. Here we show that compound hot-dry-windy events (HDW) significantly increased in the U.S. Great Plains from 1982 to 2020. These HDW events were the most impactful drivers for wheat yield loss, accounting for a 4% yield reduction per 10 h of HDW during heading to maturity. Current HDW trends are associated with yield reduction rates of up to 0.09 t ha(-1) per decade and HDW variations are atmospheric-bridged with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We quantify the yield shock, which is spatially distributed, with the losses in severely HDW-affected areas, presumably the same areas affected by the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Our findings indicate that compound HDW, which traditional risk assessments overlooked, have significant implications for the U.S. winter wheat production and beyond.

Automated summary

The authors demonstrate that compound climate extremes in recent decades have caused reduced winter wheat yields in the U.S. Great Plains, most severely affecting the same areas as the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. The study shows that compound hot-dry-windy events significantly increased in the region from 1982 to 2020 and were the main drivers for yield loss. These findings highlight the significant implications of compound climate extremes for winter wheat production in the United States and beyond, which have been overlooked in traditional risk assessments.