Driving factors and emission reduction scenarios analysis of CO2 emissions in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and surrounding cities based on LMDI and system dynamics

As one of the most open and economically dynamic regions in China, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is at the forefront of low-carbon development and has an exemplary and leading role for other regions. This study provides a research framework based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and system dynamics (SD) by first compiling an inventory of CO2 emissions in the GBA and surrounding cities from 2000 to 2019 and then sys-tematically and comprehensively analyzing the driving factors, future trends and policy implications of CO2 emissions in the GBA and surrounding cities. The results show that (a) CO2 emissions in the GBA and surrounding cities grew from 253.39 Mt in 2000 to 627.86 Mt in 2019, with an average annual growth rate of 4.89 a/o. The per capita CO2 emis-sions showed a continuous decreasing trend, and the overall carbon intensity of each sector showed a decreasing trend. (b) GDP per capita growth has the greatest effect on CO2 emissions, followed by the number of transport vehicles and population. The negative effects are energy intensity, average output of transportation vehicles, and residential energy intensity, with energy intensity being the most critical. (c) In the baseline scenario, regional CO2 emissions in 2030 are 1.25 times higher than those in 2019 and continue to grow. (d) Technological innovation measures are the most effec-tive among individual emission reduction policies, followed by optimization of industrial structure. Furthermore, en-ergy structure adjustment, vehicle licensing restrictions, and residents' green living are less effective. (e) Under comprehensive emission reduction measures, the region can achieve carbon emissions peaking in 2026 and reduce the regional carbon intensity by 66.24 a/o in 2030 compared with 2005. This study provides effective data support for the GBA and surrounding cities to formulate low carbon policies, promote carbon emission reduction and achieve carbon emissions peaking early.

Automated summary

As the most open and economically dynamic region in China, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area plays a leading role in low-carbon development and provides a framework for other regions. This study presents a research framework using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and system dynamics (SD) to analyze CO2 emissions in the GBA and surrounding cities. The results show that CO2 emissions have been increasing, but per capita emissions have been decreasing and the overall carbon intensity of each sector has been declining. Factors such as GDP growth, transport vehicles, and population have the greatest impact on CO2 emissions. Technological innovation measures are the most effective in reducing emissions, followed by industrial structure optimization. Under comprehensive emission reduction measures, the region can achieve carbon emissions peaking in 2026 and significant carbon intensity reduction by 2030.