Modeling economic impacts of mobility restriction policy during the COVID-19 pandemic

The economic impacts of pandemics can be enormous. However, lockdown and human mobility restrictions are effective policies for containing the spread of the disease. This study proposes a framework for assessing the economic impact of varying degrees of movement restrictions and examines the effectiveness of this framework in a case study examining COVID-19 control measures in Japan. First, mobile network operators data and total employment statistics on a 500-meter grid scale are used to determine the status of mobility restrictions and impacts on consumption in 30 industrial sectors. Next, the economic impacts are assessed using a spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, proven to yield valuable insights into the total economic impacts of natural disasters. In sectors that implement telework and e-commerce-wholesale/retail, finance/insurance, and communication sectors-estimates of production and GDP are obtained that are close to the actual figures. The current case study is limited to Japan, but similar analysis can be conducted by using the CGE model for each country and open mobility data. Thus, the framework has potential to serve as an effective tool for assessing trade-offs between infection risks and economic impacts to inform policy-making by combining with findings from epidemiology.

Automated summary

Pandemics have significant economic impacts, but lockdown and mobility restrictions are effective measures to control the spread of disease. This study proposes a framework for assessing the economic impact of varying degrees of movement restrictions and evaluates its effectiveness in a case study of COVID-19 control measures in Japan. The framework utilizes mobile network data and employment statistics to determine mobility restrictions and their effects on consumption in different sectors. Economic impacts are assessed using a spatial computable general equilibrium model, yielding accurate estimates in sectors implementing telework and e-commerce. This framework can be applied to other countries using the CGE model and open mobility data, serving as a valuable tool for informing policy-making by balancing infection risks and economic impacts.